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"As we start the new year, I thought it might be entertaining to try and make a few predictions on what the next 12 months will bring in the automotive world. I fully expect all of these will be wrong as the one thing the last several years has shown is we live in an increasingly unpredictable world." - SSO Report
Tim Current: '26 911 Carrera S - PTS Verde British Racing Green
'24 Cayenne S - Algarve Blue Metallic
'21 718 Cayman GTS - Black
'22 911 Turbo S - Carmine Red
'21 718 Cayman GT4 - White
'11 GMC 1500 Quad Cab 4x4 - Black Musik-Stadt Region
I am going to predict that Porsche will review their decisions on petroleum powered Porsches and with Plants being idled for VW they will pump out more Macan and Caysters for 25-26 for markets other than Europe. Makes sense as infrastructure is not moving at the pace needed, so they will fill-in their Sales gaps until EV becomes more advantageous. My thoughts are based on when over a decade back there was an overpopulation of Porsches available and management held vehicles at the Baltimore Port till Sales caught up. That kept the demand fairly static when if they had operated as other Automotive Manufacturers do there would have been a flood of Porsches and that would have impacted both Sales and Trade Ins. Time will tell , but I believe stubbornness in Stuttgart will fade and the Stuttgart Smarts will prevail again.
WillyDaP wrote: Tue Jan 07, 2025 7:50 am
I am going to predict that Porsche will review their decisions on petroleum powered Porsches and with Plants being idled for VW they will pump out more Macan and Caysters for 25-26 for markets other than Europe. Makes sense as infrastructure is not moving at the pace needed, so they will fill-in their Sales gaps until EV becomes more advantageous. My thoughts are based on when over a decade back there was an overpopulation of Porsches available and management held vehicles at the Baltimore Port till Sales caught up. That kept the demand fairly static when if they had operated as other Automotive Manufacturers do there would have been a flood of Porsches and that would have impacted both Sales and Trade Ins. Time will tell , but I believe stubbornness in Stuttgart will fade and the Stuttgart Smarts will prevail again.
Yep.
David Whitlock reported the following on Dec 23rd which I posted in another thread:
"Good news for those of us that like I.C.E.. Porsche plans to keep gas & hybrid cars alive much longer than planned due to the slowdown in EV sales."
Also, a few days earlier on Dec 20th, SSO Report laid it out who is really in charge of Porsche AG the automaker. Namely, it's Porsche SE. They are not too pleased and they ARE Porsche (and most of VW AG too). The following quote from that piece says a lot (its a pretty good line!):
"While this is about Porsche, it isn’t about the Porsche that makes the 911 and Cayenne, that’s Porsche AG. This is about the Porsche that indirectly controls and owns that Porsche, i.e Porsche SE. Porsche SE is the Porsche family’s holding company and the family controls 100% of the ordinary voting shares. Porsche SE’s Board of Directors and the invite list to a Porsche family dinner would not differ too greatly."
Tim Current: '26 911 Carrera S - PTS Verde British Racing Green
'24 Cayenne S - Algarve Blue Metallic
'21 718 Cayman GTS - Black
'22 911 Turbo S - Carmine Red
'21 718 Cayman GT4 - White
'11 GMC 1500 Quad Cab 4x4 - Black Musik-Stadt Region
.......missed that report , and thanks so much for posting that up Mr. Blueline! No surprise since I spent over 30 years in the Automotive Business and the number of times that Manufacturers said a vehicle would stop being built based on their projections was rarely correct. Some models and when they would discontinue changed so often few even paid attention to a supposed Assembly Line stoppage. The Dodge Challenger was slated to stop being built in 2014 and amazingly it was not until 2024 that it ceased , with two other projected dates it would be discontinued in that 11 year model period.
Nice read and I am sure many others missed this announcement around Christmas and Hanukah, so thank you my friend.
WSJ: "Germany’s Economic Model Is Broken, and No One Has a Plan B. The country is focused on exports, but China is slowing imports and U.S. tariff threats are growing. Politicians are offering few alternatives." https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/germa ... _permalink
Thoughts_Jan2510_1737932846369.webp (34.7 KiB) Viewed 2756 times
Tim Current: '26 911 Carrera S - PTS Verde British Racing Green
'24 Cayenne S - Algarve Blue Metallic
'21 718 Cayman GTS - Black
'22 911 Turbo S - Carmine Red
'21 718 Cayman GT4 - White
'11 GMC 1500 Quad Cab 4x4 - Black Musik-Stadt Region
Fairly sobering stuff and does not bode well for VAG. The combination of a poor EV strategy, over reliance on the Chinese market and not understanding how quickly they developed their own EVs was not good.
By all accounts BYD is building good quality cars and much lower prices, China is well aware of the tariff restrictions here but they can dominate in Asia or Africa as those countries gear up their charging plans as well as continuing to lead their domestic market.
I think we have become complacent about China , assuming they are just low cost copycats. The impact of DeepFind of the markets is a sign of how fast things can change and I am worried that the next domino will be leadership in quantum computing.
I am familiar with the control over Porsche itself by the family and I think it is a very good thing. It provides an alternative direction should they need to separate further from the parent. Certainly a clearer ICE/EV roadmap would be helpful.
I agree with RD because having been in the Automotive business for well over 30 years of the time I was working, the exciting part for me was the constant innovation. Funny, we complain so much about Government intervention but so many of the things we take for granted in safety, engine efficiency and more are do the demands Worldwide. China is buiiding plenty of vehicles that are of high quality and what concerns me is we seem to be complacent almost like we were when the Japanese really attacked the US Market in the late 60s.
I am not huge proponent of EV, and currently I feel Toyota has it correct with a solid mix but their main focus on Hybrids. Lots of good points from RDmcG, and the North American continent does need to realize this is the Industry that fuels a massive amount of the workforce in both the US and Canada. The trend may be mandated by Governments around the Globe but one can not simply avoid , we do need to take notice even though the Infrastructure is not moving at a strong enough pace to accommodate at present. Porsche realizing they need to continue quite a few of the ICE platforms longer is simply the common sense realization that one can not build power outlets fast enough or have the Public Power to charge today. That does not mean Automotive Companies can afford to stop various innovations for vehicles, but a balance is the safeguard for most established companies. To a degree that may be the main safety valve , as all of one'sneggs in one basket, like BYD, could also come to an electrifying halt if no outlets are live or power is overloaded on the grid.
"The Chinese on the other hand have understood that an EV is really a completely new category and many of the legacy attributes in terms of emotion, engagement, and driving experience are effectively irrelevant. Instead, it’s a transportation appliance. Cheap, comfortable, and efficient are the attributes that matter. An emotional connection in the EV world is irrelevant."
ReidMcT wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2025 5:49 am
I think this may be pretty much true:
"The Chinese on the other hand have understood that an EV is really a completely new category and many of the legacy attributes in terms of emotion, engagement, and driving experience are effectively irrelevant. Instead, it’s a transportation appliance. Cheap, comfortable, and efficient are the attributes that matter. An emotional connection in the EV world is irrelevant."
Unfortunately for car people, that is the case, especially with EVs and especially as viewed by the Chinese and many others in the world. Their view is that the sole purpose of passenger vehicles (EVs in particular) are as a means to get around, nothing more, so they are laser focused on building a toaster on wheels with massive computing power. And building them cheaply, I might add.
Tim Current: '26 911 Carrera S - PTS Verde British Racing Green
'24 Cayenne S - Algarve Blue Metallic
'21 718 Cayman GTS - Black
'22 911 Turbo S - Carmine Red
'21 718 Cayman GT4 - White
'11 GMC 1500 Quad Cab 4x4 - Black Musik-Stadt Region
I grew up where all cars were manual and unsophisticated but the dream cars were the things like XKE Jags and the like. All the cars I bought in my young years were clunkers but some had been sports cars once . The sounds of my youth were ICE engines and hearing a flat six or a big V8, or later going to F1 races and actually feeling the sound of the Ferraris hit me in the chest are all part of the music of life. Hopefully ICE will be here for a fair while yet, but for the average 14 year old it is pretty much old hat.
Just as the value of prewar cars has declined and been replaced by the cars we dreamed of in our teens, there will come a time when the youth of today will want something of their younger days, but apart from true exotics or niches such as 911s/Vettes there will not be a car culture for their own generation.
