Porsche's EV strategy is changing

[Bill in Bama]

This is something I've predicted for a while, all the carmakers that have gone "all in" for electric vehicles (well, all but Tesla) are now rethinking that plan. Porsche is no different. The Taycan is a sales disaster, even with a styling refresh. 718 Boxsters and Cayman are selling like hotcakes because buyers don't want the electric version coming next year. Now Porsche says they will offer some of their electric cars in an ICE version too. The Macan is likely the first to do this. People are voting with their wallets and EV's aren't getting many votes. Ford is bleeding cash by the billions, Stellantis is going back to ICE, others will follow.

The bad news for us is that the coming electric 718 won't be easy to convert back to ICE, so if they decide to do so it will take years. This likely means the the 718 will be discontinued in just a few years, which will be a big loss for sports car enthusiasts.

[996C438]

I firmly believe the future is in hybrids or very efficient ICE . As an example Mazda have stayed the course on developing more efficient engines .

The infrastructure for petroleum is well established and too costly to recreate . But they can adapt if/when an alternative fuel is created . An example would be an inexpensive to produce bio fuel . That fuel technology continues to evolve .

All electric has its place in society , large cities comes to mind . But for the masses that travel a large country like the US and Canada I just don't see it . If you are in South Dakota or Edmonton and it's - 45 wind chill and you have a 200 mile trip planned , I doubt you are picking an EV.

[Bill in Bama]

I agree that EV's make sense for urban driving for many, but costs must come down significantly, plus infrastructure has to improve massively, plus there has to be a big push for nuclear generation or else it will die due to insufficient power availability.

But I firmly believe the future is a mix of ICE, EV, and hybrid. Class 8 trucks will never be EV. Alternative fuel, even bio fuels, are still not cost effective. And take away ALL subsidies, let every fuel stand(or fall) on it's own. Porsches experiment with a synthetic gasoline is horribly expensive and the projected quantity is but a small droplet in a very large ocean of demand, it will never go mainstream. Time will tell if my predictions are correct, and I doubt I'll live long enough to see them come true or be proved false. But for the next 50 years, and probably much longer, petroleum fuels will be a reliable and relatively cheap source of energy for most of the world.

[Tom]

Re infrastructure, EV car batteries need to become standardized like Propane tanks so that you can just swap them out at the battery station without waiting for batteries to charge. Otherwise, the EV can't be a realistic long-haul option, absent some breakthrough in charging technology.

[blueline]

Developments continue apace regarding this thread's subject line as started by Bill. Porsche (and any other traditional legacy automakers who hope to survive the near term) are rapidly pivoting from their prior outlandish predictions and plans. From the UK's "Autocar" publication as linked in yesterday's eBrake News feed from PCA:

"Porsche mulls new ICE Macan amid drop in brand's sales"

"Porsche may reverse its decision to make the second-generation Macan SUV exclusively electric, amid one of the most difficult periods in the brand’s 93-year history."

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new- ... drop-sales


"Porsche’s electrification plans continue to face significant challenges. Along with Taycan production being heavily cut, the electric 718 Boxster and Cayman sports cars, initially scheduled for 2025, face delays due to supply-chain issues with battery supplier Northvolt, which recently filed for bankruptcy."

"Porsche declined to comment on Autocar's report."

[Tom]

In the meantime, someone needs to figure out a way to put out lithium fires. This one started several days ago maybe 50 miles from CP headquarters, and the official fire-fighting strategy is to wait for itself to burn itself out.


https://www.kron4.com/news/california/o ... -burn-out/

[blueline]

I saw a news feed a few days ago about the fire when it started but haven't seen nor heard anything since. The article you linked indicates a bad situation that is still not resolved. It's a good write-up.

A few quotes from the piece are eye-opening for many who don't normally follow the issues with Lithium batteries.

Monterey County Supervisor Glenn Church said, “After thorough discussions with our local fire officials, it is clear that there is no proven way to put out one of these fires once it has reached this magnitude. Attempts to put out battery fires at other sites have only worsened the situation. Water is used initially only when the batteries start to heat, not when flames have emerged. I find the lack of a proven system to extinguish the fires highly alarming.”

Mendoza said 80 percent of batteries stored in the burned building were destroyed by fire. “We thought the entire building was going to burn. Now we have that one section that hasn’t burned,” Mendoza explained.

Mendoza said fire investigators can’t approach the building until Vistra Energy engineers assess the site and determine if it is safe to enter. Firefighters are most concerned about the 20 percent of batteries that did not catch fire.

[Bill in Bama]

Lots of unintended consequences are popping up re renewable energy sources. I'd not heard about this fire, pretty frightening. Consider if a big battery manufacturing plant catches fire.... I think all forms of renewable energy are now being outed in their not so clean parts. Solar panels are very toxic in the manufacturing process, wind turbines have lots of negatives, etc. Who knew that there really isn't a free lunch.

And Porsche and all the other car companies that went all in for EV's are now in panic mode trying to return to ICE vehicles. I have trouble holding back from saying "I told you so!" But I predicted a few years ago that they would be sorry for abandoning gasoline engines and it wouldn't be long before they would be asking for bailouts. That hasn't happened yet, but give them time.

[Bill in Bama]

I can already see some results of Porsche's decision to continue 718 production (of ICE cars). The sale of used GTS and GT4 versions seem to have softened a bit and will likely continue to fall as the 718 platform endures a while longer. I'm certainly no expert and maybe this is a seasonal blip, but I sense it's a reaction to the fact that ICE 718's are gonna be around indefinitely and probably the new revised body(983?) will even debut as a gasoline vehicle.